Sunday, April 10, 2011

First Round Match Ups and Predictions

The Western Conference

1. Vancouver Canucks
8. Chicago Blackhawks

Vancouver in 6 games.
Some of you might think that that is a bold prediction, and some of you might think it's a little bit biased given that I am a Canucks fan. My answer is that yes it is a bold statement because Chicago has eliminated the Canucks in 6 games in the two previous year. But this is not a biased prediction and I will tell you why.
Chicago is not the same Team it was last year. Either are the Canucks. The difference is that the Canucks got better and Chicago got worse. Last year was a once in a lifetime team for Chicago especially in the cap era. The Canucks are better in every area compared to the Blackhawks.
Defense:
Although the Canucks might not boast the likes of Seabrook and Keith, Alex Edler has rounded into a superb defenseman for the Canucks. Also the Canucks have 8 solid NHL defensemen. Ehrhoff, Edler, Salo (if not injured), Ballard, Hamhuis, Alberts, Rome, and Bieksa.
The Blackhawks D isn't so amazing
Seabrook, Keith, Campbell, Campoli, Hjalmarsson, and Jassen Cullimore, Nick Leddy, and Jordan Hendry all switch in and out of the 6th position.
Goalies:
Roberto Luongo, Corey Schnieder vs. Corey Crawford, Marty Turco, There isn't much of a comparison.
Giver Corey Crawford had a great season, I don't think he is the same caliber as Luongo and Schnieder. If you are thinking about Luongo having a bad post-season think again. And Luongo hasn't been as bad as people say he has been in the post-season putting up a 2.46 goals against average in his career. He also single handedly pulled the Canucks through the first round of the playoffs in 06/07. Also he is playing the best hockey of his career.
Forwards:
It comes down to depth, and unlike in defense, the Hawks don't "out star" the Canucks. The Hawks have Toews, Kane, Sharp (who isn't currently healthy), and Hossa. The Canucks have Daniel and Henrik Sedin, and Kesler. Also while when the Canucks have an injury we have players like Max Lapeirre and Chris Higgins to step up,  The Hawks have been lucky not to have too many forward injuries, because they have had players such as Viktor Stalberg and Tomas Kopecky  playing prominent roles. And of course Luongo will not be annoyed by the likes on Dustin Byfuglien who is in Atlanta.

Now I didn't intend for the prediction to be that long, I kind of got carried away, and I new I would really need to do a good job of convincing you about my prediction because I'm sure some of you are doubtful about the Canucks beating the Hawks.

2. San Jose Sharks
7. Los Angeles Kings
Sharks in 5 games.
This seems like a really unlikely prediction and I'm sure you are all thinking about how promising the Kings were coming into this season, and how good they were last year and at the beginning of this year. Well I'm here to tell you to not expect them to put up much of a fight. Mostly because their top scorer is out for all of the playoffs, no matter how far the Kings go, with a broken ankle. Their leading scorer is Anze Kopitar. Also their second highest scorer (Justin Williams)  is out for at least the first round with a dislocated shoulder. And with Drew Doughty having an off year, mostly just not looking like the same guy that amazed us in his rookie and Sophomore seasons. Doughty has been doing many things like careless give-aways. The only way the Kings somehow wins this series is if either Jonathan Berneir or Jonathan Quick stands on his head. And even if one of those 2 young goalies manages to play ridiculously well, the Kings will probably not come out as the winners. The Kings are too injury riddled, and their stars are not playing like stars, and the Sharks are too strong and have too much depth for the Kings to handle at this point in time.

3. Detroit Red Wings
6. Phoenix Coyotes
Detroit in 7 games.
There is a great chance that this will be the last playoff series the Coyotes play in Phoenix. The main reason why the Coyotes will push the Red Wings to 7 games is this, 2 words. Ilya Bryzgalov. Bryzgalov has proven he has the ability to stand on his head in the post-season. He proved it last season while holding Phoenix in the series against the Red Wings. Also the great coaching of Dave Tippett and the general pluckyness of this team will hold them in it. But the Red Wings are to skilled, experienced, and Mike Babcock is just as good of a coach as Tippett is. And a big difference between the Red Wings and the Coyotes is that while Ilya Byzgalov will have to stand on his head for the Coyotes to win games, Jimmy Howard only needs to be good. I would qualify Howard as fully capable of being solid. The x-factor is this though. Can Henrik Zetterberg play, or if he can play, be effective if he is still partially injured. That could be another reason Phoenix brings it to game 7. The Red Wings, if they want to make a run, will need more production out of Jiri Hudler who, although he has picked it up lately, has had a slow season. Many, including me, predicted him to finish with 60 points. Hudler finished with 37. Just over half of what was expected out of him.

4. Anaheim Ducks
5. Nashville Predators
Nashville in 7 games.
This one was hard to predict. If it weren't for an injury to the starting goalie for Anaheim, Jonas Hiller, I would have picked Anaheim. Both teams are pretty even so you can expect this series to go either way. The big line for Anaheim is scary (Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan) and with Teemu Selanne, who is showing no signs of being old Anaheim has plenty of scoring, and that is how they have won hockey games. But if anyone is able to handle them it is Pekka Rinne. Rinne has been getting serious contention for the Vezina Trophy (the leagues best goalie). It must be easier for him compared to other goalies given the fact that Rinne is 6'5. With injuries to Hiller and Emery it leaves Anaheim with Dan Ellis. Ellis who has had a sub-par year has been known to crank it up a knotch in the playoffs so we'll see what happens. If Ellis continues to play badly it will hep the Preds because they have had a lack of scoring this year with Martin Erat and Sergei Kostitsyn both tying for the team lead in points with 50. Anaheim is also lacking the dominant defenseman they have had in the past with no Chris Pronger or Scott Niedermeyer. Cam Fowler might be that defenseman in the future, but he's not there yet.

Eastern Conference

1. Washington Capitals
8. New York Rangers
Washington in 6 games
I think that Washington has gotten it's act together since last year's playoff upset when the 8th seed Montreal Canadiens beat the 1st seed Capitals in 7 games. A big reason why the Capitals will not repeat getting upset is because they are playing good defensive hockey. Not all this run and gun stuff they did last year when it was all offense. Sure you can get away with that in the regular season. But in the playoffs teams are concentrating  harder on defense, and sometimes players like Alexander Semin, who practically shut down last post-season, either can't handle the pressure, or like Alex Ovechkin, they hit a dry spell when the defense is concentrating solely on you. The offensively, and now defensively, gifted Capitals will make short work of the Rangers who have been relying far too much on Marian Gaborik for offense and Gaborik had a bad season this year. Also the Rangers won't be able to rely on Henrik Lundqvist as much as they have been because one man cannot do it all. Unless he pulls off a Jaroslav Halak caliber playoff then I will stand corrected. A HUGE reason why they won't do very well against the Capitals is because their offense and defense took a HUGE hit when Ryan Callahan, who is a great two way forward, broke his ankle, when Callahan went down he was tied with Gaborik for the team lead in points. But a ENORMOUS part of Callahan's game is the defesive side of it.

2. Philadelphia Flyers
7. Buffalo Sabres
Philadelphia in 6 games.
The Fylers are much too deep offensively and defensively for the Sabres. The only thing that makes this series close is how un-stable the Flyers's goaltending is. However the Sabres aren't terribly offensively gifted, or else I might have predicted them winning the series. Ryan Miller is the other reason this series will be a close one. Miller has shown that he is capable of handling snipers such as Jeff Carter, Danny Briere and Claude Giroux when Miller played at the Olympics, particularly when the Americans beat the Canadians in the round robin, Miller was phenomenal in that game, and many others in the Olympics, and I dare say that the Olympics must put a bunch of pressure on you. Off course This is only if Miller plays well and if he carries on at the pace he has been playing at it won't be extremely well considering he has had an off year this year.

3. Boston Bruins
6. Montreal Canadiens
Montreal in 7 games.
This will be the first upset I have predicted this year and I have done it for many reasons. The first reason is that the Habs won the season series 4 to 2. And although they are missing Josh Gorges and Andrei Markov, they proved last season that they can have players like Hal Gill and P.K. Subban step up and shut the other team down in last season's upset of the Washington Capitals. Another reason is that Cammalleri is beginning to heat up with 6 points in his last 6 and last year he really kicked it up a knotch with 13 goals in 19 games. Both Thomas and Price have been having phenomenal goaltending this year so I think both teams are even there considering neither of those goalies have shown they have the ability to play fantastically in the post-season. But there is also another reason I gave the edge to the Habs and I don't think many people have mentioned this. It is the fact that I think the Canadiens still want revenge for the Max Pacioretty incident and for the comments made by Mark Recchi, although I personally sort of agree with Recchi.

4.Pittsburgh Penguins
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay in 6 games.
Althought Pittsburgh has been finding ways to win without Malkin and Crosby I don't think they can do it much longer. However, although very doubtful, there is a possibility that the kid could come back in the first round, the kid of course being Crosby. But that is very doubtful. The goaltending tandem of Mike Smith and Dwayne Roloson has been very successful lately and don't expect that to change heading into the playoffs. When this Pittsburgh team starts to stumble (which I'm sure it will) without Crosby and Malkin, I don't think Marc-Andre Fleury or Brent Johnson has what it takes to single handedly lead the Penguins through this series. Of course Stamkos and St Louis have been amazing, even though they haven't really been showing it lately, I expect them to pick it up again. Both St Louis and Vincent Lecavier have shown in the past, most notably in 04 playoffs, that they are pressure players and I don't expect that to change either.


I hope you like my predictions, feel free to comment.

1 comment:

  1. Very well done, Ian. I bow to your hockey allknowingness. I'm looking forward to playing the Blackhawks and might even be so bold as to suggest Canucks in 5. We are all Canucks.

    ReplyDelete